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Trend in Total Fertility Rate: Kerala and India, 1971–2023


Observations on Trend in Total Fertility Rate: Kerala and India, 1971–2023

Kerala’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined sharply from 4.1 in 1971 to 1.5 in 2023, while India’s rate reduced from 5.2 to 1.9 during the same period.

Kerala achieved replacement-level fertility (below 2.1) by the early 1990s, much earlier than the national average, indicating early demographic transition.

Since 2000, Kerala’s TFR has remained nearly stable between 1.7 and 1.9, showing sustained low fertility levels.

India’s fertility decline gained momentum after 2000, narrowing the gap between the state and the national levels.

By 2023, Kerala’s fertility rate stood significantly below the national rate, reflecting higher literacy, better health services, and greater family planning awareness.